Gary Shilling Citas

• [Donald Trump] es tan impredecible que los extranjeros van a mirar a su alrededor y decir "chico, tenemos que dirigirnos a los refugios seguros". Y uno de los refugios seguros son los bonos del Tesoro y [otro es] el dólar.

  Gary Shilling

  Safe Haven, Boys, Dollars

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  7 Copiar cita

• Despite the recent conviction of many that we're headed back to inflation, I think deflation remains the more likely prospect. You've just got too much excess capacity in the world.

  Gary Shilling

  Thinking, Excess, World

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  7 Copiar cita

• We've seen that in the past that where you've had uncertainty, and even where the Fed is raising rates, Treasurys rise as everybody heads for safety.

  Gary Shilling

  Past, Safety, Feds

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Bloomberg TVLo único que creo que es probable que ocurra con cualquiera de los dos candidatos es un estímulo fiscal masivo. Hay muchos votantes en Europa Occidental y Norteamérica que llevan más de diez años sin un crecimiento real de sus ingresos, y están, en palabras de Howard Beale, "enfadadísimos y no van a aguantar más".

  Gary Shilling

  Real, Pensamiento, Años

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Investors aren't willing to accept the idea that we're in an era of lower returns.

  Gary Shilling

  Ideas, Eras, Return

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  6 Copiar cita

• Digamos que [Donald] Trump gana. ¿Le dejará el Congreso construir un muro en la frontera con México? No lo creo.

  Gary Shilling

  Muro, Ganar, Pensar

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  5 Copiar cita

• If someone loves you, they can fall out of love with you but they're probably going to keep fearing you. That's where we are with [Donald] Trump.

  Gary Shilling

  Falling In Love, Love You, One Love

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• We're in a pretty tumultuous world, and there's a lot of uncertainty. Treasurys are where people go as one of the few safe havens in the world.

  Gary Shilling

  Safe Haven, People, World

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• TPP is dead anyway, and similar deals in the eurozone are going nowhere.

  Gary Shilling

  Deals, Eurozone

  Source: markets.businessinsider.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries.

  Gary Shilling

  Country, Yield, Lows

  Source: markets.businessinsider.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Una de las cosas que creo que es muy probable es que con las perspectivas de un fuerte estímulo fiscal en respuesta a los votantes enfadados como el demonio, la Fed va a estar ahí con dinero helicóptero. En otras palabras, van a comprar todo lo que emita el Tesoro. No van a, en efecto, abogar por un fuerte estímulo fiscal y luego no financiarlo. Y eso es dinero helicóptero.

  Gary Shilling

  Strong, Thinking, Issues

  Source: markets.businessinsider.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Treasurys, as low as yields are, are higher than they are in most other developed countries. A foreign investor picks up a yield spread in Treasurys versus their own sovereigns, plus the fact that if the dollar is going to continue rallying - and I think it will because it's a safe haven - then they get a currency translation gain as well.

  Gary Shilling

  Country, Safe Haven, Thinking

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Si nos remontamos históricamente al período posterior a la Segunda Guerra Mundial, por término medio, si se produce un aumento de 100 puntos básicos en los fondos de la Reserva Federal, la repercusión en el plazo de diez años es de sólo 35 puntos básicos, y de 25 puntos básicos en el plazo de 30 años; se trata de un efecto de repercusión bastante pequeño.

  Gary Shilling

  Average, Years, Looks

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• The Fed wants to raise rates because they've been yelling and screaming about it. They've been crying wolf for so long that their credibility is shot, and I think they feel they need to.

  Gary Shilling

  Thinking, Yelling, Long

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• If Hillary [Clinton] is elected, is she going to be able to jack up taxes with virtually no deductions, and include capital gains? Unless democrats have a clean sweep of Congress, I don't think that's going to happen either.

  Gary Shilling

  Thinking, Able, Gains

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• I said earlier [2015] year that I thought we'd get to 10 or 20 bucks [per barrel ] because that's the marginal cost, and when you're in a price war, it's the marginal cost that determines the price.It is a price war because basically the OPEC reason did not cut production in their November 2014 meeting was that they got tired of cutting production and having American frackers and Russians et cetera grab market share.

  Gary Shilling

  War, Tired, Cutting

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• OPEC production went from 30 million barrels a day to 33 million. They flooded the market, and it's lost them a lot of money. Look at the Saudis: they just floated a $17.5 billion debt offering, they earlier borrowed $10 billion from a group of international banks; they're selling part of Aramco - they're desperate for money.

  Gary Shilling

  Offering, Groups, Looks

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• Sí, estamos en una era proteccionista, porque cuando hay falta de crecimiento interno, todo el mundo intenta descargar el problema en el exterior con proteccionismo, devaluaciones, recortes de las importaciones. Pero, ¿va a haber un cambio drástico? De todos modos, el TPP está muerto, y los acuerdos similares en la eurozona no van a ninguna parte.

  Gary Shilling

  Growth, Trying, Eras

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• [Niccolò] Machiavelli said it's better to be feared than to be loved.

  Gary Shilling

  Dijo

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

• A [Donald] Trump win might be bad for stocks, but it would be very positive for the dollar and Treasurys.

  Gary Shilling

  Winning, Dollars, Would Be

  Source: www.sfgate.com

  4 Copiar cita

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